1. Core driving factors and price trends
Macro supply and demand fundamentals
Supply side: Global electrolytic aluminum production capacity is close to the ceiling. China is restricted by the "45 million tons of production capacity ceiling" policy, and the release of new production capacity is limited; overseas growth is concentrated in India and Indonesia, but due to the fluctuation of bauxite export policies (such as the risk of coup in Guinea), the supply elasticity is low.
Demand side: New energy vehicles (the amount of aluminum used in a single vehicle is 30% higher than that of fuel vehicles), photovoltaic brackets (16,000 tons of aluminum per GW installed capacity) and other fields have driven the demand growth rate by more than 10%, and the demand in the traditional construction industry has stabilized.
Cost support
Electricity costs account for 30%-40% of the production cost of electrolytic aluminum. The cost of natural gas-dependent aluminum plants in Europe is higher than that of China's coal-fired power and aluminum integrated enterprises, forming a regional price differentiation baseline.
Alumina prices are affected by bauxite supply disturbances (such as adjustments to Indonesia's export policies). The release of new domestic alumina production capacity in 2025 may ease price pressure.
2. Price trend forecast
Time dimension Trend characteristics Support/pressure
Short term (second half of 2025) Affected by the Fed's rate cut rhythm and domestic off-season demand, aluminum prices may first fall back to the 18,000-18,500 yuan/ton range, and then rebound due to the recovery of peak season demand Support level: 17,500 yuan/ton (electrolytic aluminum cost line)
Pressure level: 20,500 yuan/ton
Medium and long term (2026-2028) The green economy promotes the transformation of aluminum consumption structure. The central price of aluminum is expected to rise to the 20,000-22,000 yuan/ton range, and the volatility is affected by the expansion speed of recycled aluminum production capacity Key variables: the intensity of new energy industry policies, the progress of the implementation of carbon tariffs (CBAM)
3. Risks and disturbance factors
Geopolitics and trade frictions
If the US policy of imposing a 10% tariff on China is implemented, it may increase the export cost of aluminum by about 2,000 yuan/ton, suppressing the upward space of prices.
Rusal's production cuts (250,000 tons in 2024) and the implementation of the EU carbon border tax have exacerbated the mismatch between supply and demand in the international market.
Financial attribute disturbance
The US dollar index and aluminum prices show a significant negative correlation (correlation coefficient -0.73). After the Fed's interest rate cut cycle begins, the weakening of the US dollar may stimulate aluminum prices to rise in stages.
If LME aluminum inventory falls below the 500,000-ton warning line, it may trigger speculative squeeze risks.
4. Technical signals
Price channel: The LME aluminum price range in 2025 is expected to be US$2,400-2,800/ton, and breaking through US$2,800 requires unexpected demand growth.
Volatility index: The current 30-day historical volatility of aluminum prices remains at 18%-22%, significantly higher than base metals such as copper and zinc, reflecting the intensification of market differences.
Summary: The international aluminum bar price will show a pattern of "first decline and then rise" in 2025. The rebound momentum in the second half of the year depends on the realization of new energy demand and the coordination of macroeconomic policies. It is recommended to pay attention to the export data of photovoltaic modules and the rhythm of LME inventory changes.
