1. Benchmark price range
LME aluminum price forecast: The core fluctuation range of international aluminum prices in 2025 is 2600-3000 US dollars/ton. If the geopolitical risk premium (such as energy supply disturbances, trade policy changes, etc.) is superimposed, it may rise to 3300 US dollars/ton in stages.
Domestic aluminum price correlation: Affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates and the pull of domestic demand, the core range of domestic aluminum prices (SHFE) is 17500-20000 yuan/ton, forming a "strong outside and weak inside" pattern with the foreign market.
2. Supply and demand driving factors
Supply-side constraints
Capacity bottleneck: The global electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization rate exceeds 95%, and the new capacity is limited (such as Indonesia's planned capacity is slow due to high investment costs);
Energy cost pressure: The resumption of electrolytic aluminum production in Europe is hindered by high electricity prices, and the increase in overseas supply is insufficient to support price resilience.
Demand growth
Green economy: New energy vehicles (aluminum consumption per vehicle increased by 40% year-on-year), photovoltaic brackets and UHV power grid construction have an average annual new demand of about 9 million tons;
Consumption substitution effect: The widening price gap between copper and aluminum has accelerated the application of "aluminum replacing copper" technology, further boosting the penetration rate of aluminum materials.
3. Cost and inventory support
Alumina price fluctuations: The release of new alumina production capacity in 2025 will be affected by bauxite disturbances (such as the Guinea mine incident), and the cost center is expected to move up, which will support aluminum prices;
Low inventory: LME aluminum inventory has continued to decline to 566,000 tons (the lowest level in the past two years), exacerbating the expected shortage in the spot market.
4. Short-term market performance
Recent price dynamics: As of early May 2025, the domestic spot price of electrolytic aluminum has fallen back to the range of 19,600-19,700 yuan/ton, and the international aluminum price has been affected by the fluctuations of the US dollar exchange rate and the adjustment of trade policies.
Market sentiment: The price of alumina fell by more than 2,000 yuan/ton this month, but the decline of bauxite lagged behind, and the pressure of corporate losses was transmitted to the upstream of the industrial chain.
| Risk Type | Potential Impact |
|---|---|
| Geopolitical conflicts and energy supply interruptions | Increase in production costs of electrolytic aluminum |
| US dollar exchange rate fluctuations | Heightened volatility in international aluminum prices |
| Green technology substitution | Breakthroughs in hydrogen energy storage could reduce aluminum demand growth |
