Due to multiple constraints such as relatively limited resource reserves, unfavorable grade and quality for sintering, and increased mining costs, domestic dependence on imported ores has increased year by year.
In terms of import sources, imports from Guinea mines have increased year by year, accounting for more than 50% since 2021; imports from Australian mines have declined year by year since 2020; imports from Indonesian mines have remained at 2000 in recent years The level is around 10,000 tons. The proportion of these three major aluminum ore resource countries in China's total imports has grown steadily, reaching 99.48% in 2022.
Distribution of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in China: "Aluminum from the north moves to the south"
China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is relatively concentrated. According to 2022 Aladdin data, Shandong (8.09 million tons), Xinjiang (6.54 million tons), Inner Mongolia (6.19 million tons), Yunnan (4.95 million tons) and Guangxi (2.83 million tons) electrolytic The total aluminum production capacity accounts for approximately 67.6% of the national production capacity. Among them, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are rich in coal resources, and smelters can enjoy low-cost thermal power. Guangxi and Yunnan are rich in water conservancy resources, and smelting companies can enjoy lower-priced hydropower. Shandong smelters enjoy certain electricity price policy subsidies. In essence, electricity prices determine the distribution of production capacity. .
With the continuous advancement of "carbon peak" and "carbon neutrality", the upper limit of China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity has been confirmed. From the data, after the sharp drop in production capacity in 2019, China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is in a state of slow recovery, but growth The speed is significantly slower than before.
At the same time, the national electrolytic aluminum production capacity has shown a trend of "aluminum moving from north to south". Limited by environmental protection and carbon emissions, electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the north has gradually been transferred to provinces in the south with abundant water resources. In fact, this process has been accelerated.
From the data, we can see that the production capacity of Shandong, Xinjiang, and Henan provinces has significantly decreased, while the production capacity of Yunnan and Guangxi has increased significantly. Thermal power-electrolytic aluminum production capacity is decreasing year by year, while hydropower-electrolytic aluminum production capacity is increasing year by year and its proportion is also increasing year by year.