LME aluminum price fluctuates and pulls back, new energy supports long-term trend (April 27, 2025)
1. Latest price dynamics
As of April 24, LME 3 aluminum price was $2437.50/ton, down 5% from the beginning of the month, but still higher than the same period in 2024;
The settlement price of 3-month aluminum was $2571.00/ton, and the short-term fluctuation range narrowed to $2380-2642/ton;
=LME aluminum inventory remained at a low level of 1.2 million tons, and the pressure of supply chain adjustment continued.
2. Market driving factors
Intensified policy game: The United States intends to impose a 25% tariff on imported aluminum, and the cross-regional price difference may expand to $200/ton; High energy costs: Europe's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is limited by natural gas price fluctuations, pushing up production costs to more than $2300/ton; Green demand explosion: The amount of aluminum used in new energy vehicles and photovoltaics increased by 12% year-on-year, and it is expected that global aluminum consumption will exceed 75 million tons in 2025.
3. Industry response strategy
Short-term risk aversion: Pay attention to the key resistance level of 2500-2600 USD/ton, and adjust the purchasing rhythm in combination with the Fed's interest rate policy;
Supply chain optimization: Adopt the "futures + spot" combination price locking mode to hedge geopolitical risks and price fluctuations.
4. Trend outlook
Although it is disturbed by macroeconomic policies in the short term, aluminum prices are still supported by new energy and infrastructure demand.
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