Aluminum's supply chain is a geopolitical flashpoint due to five factors.
First, resource concentration: Guinea (25%), Australia (20%), and China (16%) control global bauxite, with China refining 55% of alumina.
Second, production dominance: China produces 57% of primary aluminum, leveraging cheap coal power, while Norway and Canada use hydroelectricity. Third, trade wars: U.S. tariffs (10% in 2018) targeted Chinese overproduction, disrupting auto and aerospace industries.
Fourth, sanctions: Rusal, a Russian aluminum giant, faced U.S. sanctions in 2018, spiking global prices by 30%.
Fifth, recycling dependency: Europe and Japan rely on scrap imports due to limited bauxite reserves. Emerging trends include "green aluminum" certification for low-carbon exports and Africa's mining expansion (e.g., Guinea's Simandou mine). As nations prioritize supply chain resilience, aluminum remains central to energy transitions and industrial strategy.
