Demand for aluminum bars in the construction industry
The demand for aluminum bars in the construction industry will show a stable total volume but differentiated structure in 2025, as shown below:
I. Current demand situation
Total volume and growth rate
In 2023, the output of architectural aluminum profiles will reach 11.69 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%3, but in 2024, affected by the decline in the newly started area of real estate (a year-on-year decrease of about 5%), the output of architectural aluminum profiles is expected to decrease by 2.6% to 11.381 million tons36. Although the demand for traditional real estate has weakened, the demand for renovation of old communities and public buildings (such as hospitals and schools) has provided some support for the use of aluminum profiles.
Application areas
Aluminum bars are mainly used to produce architectural aluminum profiles such as doors, windows, and curtain walls. At present, green building policies and the promotion of prefabricated buildings have accelerated the application of energy-saving doors, windows, and curtain wall systems, and the average annual growth rate of related aluminum demand has reached 12%6. However, the aluminum formwork market has been significantly impacted by the downturn in real estate. From January to August 2024, the rental price of aluminum formwork continued to bottom out, and the industry's capacity clearance accelerated.
2. Structural contradiction between supply and demand
Supply side
In 2024, the capacity utilization rate of architectural aluminum profiles will be about 75%. Leading enterprises will improve efficiency through intelligent transformation, but small and medium-sized enterprises will partially stop production due to environmental pressure, resulting in the coexistence of structural overcapacity on the supply side and insufficient high-end production capacity. The fluctuation of electrolytic aluminum prices (the average price in 2024 will increase by 10% year-on-year) will further squeeze the profits of midstream processing enterprises.
3. Technology-driven
Technological innovation
The application of automated production lines and precision testing equipment has significantly improved the accuracy and strength of aluminum profiles, meeting the requirements of high-end buildings for material performance. For example, emerging scenarios such as 3D printing customized components have expanded the application boundaries of aluminum.
4. Future prospects
It is estimated that the market size of architectural aluminum profiles will reach 230 billion yuan in 2025, with an annual compound growth rate of 5%-8%6. In the short term, the downward pressure on real estate will continue to exist, but the stock transformation market and green building policies will continue to release demand, and the industry may enter a "U-shaped" recovery stage in the second half of 2025.
